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1. U.S. Wind Power Capacity Could Top 187 GW by 2020
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2. Itron's Stimulus Rally May Be Done
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3. T. Boone, Sen. Reid Team Up for Clean Energy Summit Redux
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4. Gemini Solar Pushing Ahead In Austin Sunshine
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5. Daily Sprout
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6. 3M Amps Up R&D to Supply Renewable Energy Industry
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7. Google Oceans Could Unveil Climate Change Data
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8. Beer, Bro Time and Smart Grid
U.S. Wind Power Capacity Could Top 187 GW by 2020
Josie Garthwaite - Energy
Adding hundreds of small transmission line projects and grid upgrades to the 57 GW of large-scale transmission initiatives now being developed in the western U.S. (many of them in Texas) could have a significant impact on wind power development in less than six years, according to a new report from Emerging Energy Research. Add a national renewable portfolio standard and increased investment in transmission infrastructure, and the firm says wind power capacity could reach 187 GW by 2020.
As we reported earlier, T. Boone Pickens and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, much like President Obama and the American Wind Energy Association, want to see more money go into transmission initiatives. And a renewable portfolio standard, enacted in various forms in different states, is now on the table in Washington.
But these conditions are not guaranteed, which means installed capacity could hover closer to 140 GW a decade from now. "The inability of transmission build-out to keep pace with wind project development activity will increasingly constrain the growth of the U.S. wind power market in the near-term," Emerging Energy’s senior wind analyst, Matthew Kaplan, said in a release today.
During the next three years, the research firm expects annual growth in U.S. wind capacity to “stall” at 8-9 GW. The fact that 9 GW of new installations on a yearly basis has come to look like a stall shows just how firmly wind has become a part of mainstream visions for a cleaned-up national energy portfolio — the U.S. increased its wind capacity by a record-breaking 50 percent last year with less than that, despite the stranglehold on credit markets in the last quarter.
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Itron's Stimulus Rally May Be Done
Kevin Kelleher - Big Green
The promise of billions being pumped into smart grid companies has sent some of that sector’s stocks rallying lately. But the stimulus plan could already be losing its ability to stimulate stocks — and before so much as a dime of it is spent.
Take Liberty Lake, Wash.-based Itron. President Obama is calling for 40 million smart meters to be installed inside U.S. homes to help them track real-time electricity and usage. As a key player in smart meters, Itron looks like a likely beneficiary of the expected federal largess.
As of last Friday’s close, buoyed by all the talk of smart grid stimulus spending, Itron’s stock had rallied 90 percent from its 2008 low point of $34.43. But it tumbled 7.6 percent to end at $60.31 on Monday following a downgrade from UBS, which said it was starting to look expensive.
At this point, we believe investors are well aware of the potential benefit from the federal stimulus bill, and we see few additional near-term catalysts. While ITRI may receive new [advanced metering infrastructure] awards at some point in 2009, we believe this is balanced with a risk that '09 guidance is revised downwards at some point due to utility capex cuts and/or AMI project delays.
UBS said it still likes the long-term outlook for Itron. But while it maintained its $70-a-share target, the firm cut its rating to neutral from buy. Itron itself recently hinted that 2009 might present some challenges, which could take some of the shine off its smart grid appeal.
Spending at the end of the year was lower than normal, Itron said, and some advanced metering infrastructure contracts had shifted to later schedules. The company also said it generated less cash in the fourth quarter than in the third, prompting it to prepay less debt than planned, although it’s still meeting the terms of its loans.
Consider, too, that Itron gets only a third of its revenue from North America, muting the impact of federal spending on overall profits. And that, last week, the company said it was issuing 2.16 million new shares to convertible-debt holders, a move that will dilute a bit the share of current investors in future profits.
Smart grid technology promises to make our energy consumption more efficient for years, but as the drop in Itron’s share price on Monday suggests, stimulus-based rallies can come and go well before the spending actually begins.
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T. Boone, Sen. Reid Team Up for Clean Energy Summit Redux
Josie Garthwaite - Policy
The three came together to plug the second annual National Clean Energy Summit due to take place in Washington D.C. on Feb. 23. The gathering is meant to serve as a forum for politicians, scientists, executives, academics, and advocates to hash out energy policy just as the government is gearing up to dole out billions in stimulus for, among other things, renewables R&D, energy efficiency and conservation projects, and infrastructure upgrades.
The first summit, put together by Reid and the Center for American Progress Action Fund, produced several policy recommendations likely to be revisited at this year’s event. More ambitious goals that have come to the fore in recent months may raise the bar for proposals at the summit.
Take the renewable portfolio standard, for example. Last year’s summit-goers agreed on a mandate for U.S. utilities to produce at least 20 percent of their electricity from wind, solar and geothermal energy by 2020. President Obama has called for 25 percent renewables by 2025. And whereas the Las Vegas group called for building energy use to be halved by 2030, proposed stimulus for weatherization and making federal buildings and public housing more energy-efficient — not to mention developing technology for improving efficiency — could potentially speed up the timeline for cutting energy use.
In addition to the official roundup of agreeable policy recommendations, last year’s summit also produced 10 head-turning suggestions from former President Bill Clinton. He said one idea — making a single state, such as Nevada, or an area like Puerto Rico energy independent — could “rock the world” (Reid also mentioned Clinton’s suggestion on today’s call). In the context of today’s policy questions — especially the one about whether or not to invest $900 billion in stimulus — summit goers who really want to move the needle (let alone rock it) this year will have think even bigger.
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Gemini Solar Pushing Ahead In Austin Sunshine
David Ehrlich - Big Green
Austin could get one of the biggest solar photovoltaic plants in the country if a deal is approved between Gemini Solar Development and the city-owned Austin Energy. But the planned 30-megawatt project comes as some companies are scaling back their sun-powered operations and laying off staff, so how can San Francisco-based Gemini Solar keep the momentum going?
Although it was formed just four months ago as a joint venture between China’s Suntech Power Holdings and MMA Renewable Ventures, Gemini comes into Austin with some solid background in big solar. MMA Renewables owns and operates the one of the largest solar PV project operating in the U.S. today — the 14-MW solar array at Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada, which went live in December 2007.
MMA Renewable and Suntech make quite the power couple, with MMA Renewable, part of Baltimore’s Municipal Mortgage & Equity, or MuniMae, handling the financing and development of large-scale solar projects, and Suntech taking care of the manufacturing of the solar cells and modules. However, both MuniMae and Suntech have had some recent difficulties: MuniMae, a real estate investment firm with more than $20 billion of assets under management, was delisted from the New York Stock Exchange last year, and Suntech announced earlier this month that it laid off 800 people, or 10 percent of its staff.
Fortunately, there’s a long-term payoff if the solar plant is approved — Austin Energy plans to hand over $10 million per year under a 25-year power purchase agreement, with the project set to go online by the end of 2010. The plant is expected to cover 300 acres, with 171,000 Suntech polycrystalline silicon modules that will be ground-mounted on single-axis trackers that can follow the sun throughout the day.
Hear Microsoft, IBM, Dell and Cisco execs at GigaOM’s Green:Net.
Daily Sprout
Josie Garthwaite - Misc
In the Money: VantagePoint Venture Partners said in Davos this weekend that it plans to invest more than $1 billion in 10 to 15 cleantech startups over the next 24 to 30 months. — Reuters
Will the Real U.S. Auto Industry Please Stand Up: From 1900 to 1925, the U.S. had more than 3,000 automobile startups turning out cars of every imaginable design, variously powered by steam, electricity and then gasoline. Can the auto industry return to its innovative roots before it collapses? — New York Times
Bolivia’s Battery Bid: Bolivia, home of the world’s largest lithium reserves, will become a major lithium-ion battery producer within six years, according to the country’s top mining official. He said Sumitomo, Mitsubishi, Bollore and other companies have expressed interest in a government lithium venture. — Guardian
Texas’s Lucky 13: Texas utility regulators have identified 13 companies that will build $5 billion worth of transmission lines to support the state’s booming wind industry, including Oncor and Electric Transmission Texas. — NYT’s Green Inc.
Copper Industry Hearts Hybrids, EVs: Japan’s copper producers hope growing demand for hybrid and electric vehicles, which require more of the metal, will fuel a jump in copper consumption. — Platts
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3M Amps Up R&D to Supply Renewable Energy Industry
Josie Garthwaite - Energy
In early September, as the Minneapolis/St. Paul Business Journal noted, 3M CEO George Buckley told investors that the company aimed to create a unit the following month targeting wind and solar markets. At the time, Buckley called the solar market “just a quite massive opportunity for 3M,” citing a forecast that it would grow to $50 billion in 2012, up from $20 billion in 2008.
This is far from 3M’s first foray into the renewable energy industry; the company has been making tapes, coatings and adhesives, among other things, for solar panels and wind turbines for years. But like everyone else, the company big has been hit hard by the global economic downturn (overall profit plunged 37 percent last quarter). As pressure increases across 3M’s business segments (nowhere more than in consumer electronics), today’s announcement reflects relative strength in alternative energy markets — and the new opportunities that are expected to arise as a result of the economic stimulus package. In addition to products for energy generation, 3M’s renewables division will also work on tools for boosting energy efficiency and conservation in buildings (window films, for example) — a sector slated to get billions of dollars in federal funding as part of President Obama’s plan.
Update: Despite company-wide efforts to cut costs this year, 3M tells us that it will increase investment in products for the renewable energy industry through this new division, whose guiding objective will be to drive down the cost per watt of renewable energy. Tracy Anderson, business director for the unit’s energy-generation segment, would not get into specifics, but he said 3M will likely submit technology from the new division in competitive bids for federal grants. “The company has a long history of working with the Department of Energy,” he said. “We will be partnering with the Department of Energy where it makes sense.”
Hear Microsoft, IBM, Dell and Cisco execs at GigaOM’s Green:Net.
Google Oceans Could Unveil Climate Change Data
Katie Fehrenbacher - Energy
Update: As expected, Google launched version 5.0 of Google Earth, which includes detailed ocean data (the ability for the user to dive beneath the surface) and “historical imagery” that features a time slider of satellite data for a location over time. Gore used the time slider feature to show the disappearance of the glaciers over time and said his hope is that people will use Google Earth to see the reality of what is happening with climate change. Sylvia Earle, National Geographic Explorer in Residence, showed the audience the imagery of diving under water and seeing the ocean floor, which drew cheers from the crowd. The event finished up with a song from Jimmy-Margaritaville-Buffett, who showed off Google Earth clips of his own global musical tour. (More photos below)
Google has long used its mapping and satellite imagery services for environmental aims, and it has a Google Earth Outreach section that allows organizations to create a variety of do-gooder information layers on top of Google Earth, making that data publicly available and easily visualized. Last May, the Met Office Hadley Center and the British Antarctic Survey worked with Google Earth to launch climate change-related mapping info, featuring an animated globe of the Center's model of CO2 concentrations spanning from November 1999 forward to October 2099. (And here’s our own eco-tour of Google Earth! You first have to download the software and open the KML layers.)
Google Earth is really great tool to view the global impact of climate change. A visual representation of the effects on oceans can help the public grasp how large the problem is. “Google Oceans” is also part of the search engine giant’s overall plan to use the Internet and communication technology to make information more accessible (for more on that come to our Green:Net conference, which will feature three Google speakers). We’ll bring you the updates from the event right here!
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Beer, Bro Time and Smart Grid
Katie Fehrenbacher - Energy
OK, smart grid technology isn’t on a level playing field when it comes to competing with Super Bowl-friendly topics like the Go Daddy shower scene, or Pepsi’s slapstick men smashing into various objects. So I haven’t heard much talk about how amazing GE’s 30-second (estimated $100,000-a-second) smart grid ad was during the Super Bowl on Sunday. But it’s definitely a first for smart grid technology, which was relatively unknown to most in the U.S. in 2008, to take such a prominent stage (for more info on smart grids read our FAQ).
Well, here’s GE’s smart grid clip — we know you couldn’t compete with beer and bro time, but we salute you:
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