The 10 Biggest Cleantech Victories of 2008
Katie Fehrenbacher - Energy
Last week we brought you the 10 Biggest Cleantech Disappointments of 2008 — such as electric car maker Tesla hitting a wall, and T. Boone Pickens putting his massive wind power project on ice. But nascent industry also saw a lot of significant milestones in 2008. Here are some of the green highlights:
1) The Renewable Energy Investment Tax Credit Passed…Finally: Clean power startups were fretting throughout the first half of the year, but a financial crisis was what it would take for Congress to finally extend the investment and production tax credits that play such a vital role in the cleantech industry. In 2009, the wind industry will be looking to get its tax credits extended even further.
2) Obama Won, Promises Cleantech Support: A victory in 2008 for President-elect Barack Obama promises a future in which the U.S. turns it attention to fighting climate change once and for all — an abrupt shift from the current administration. Obama has pledged $150 billion investment in clean power over the next decade and a green-tinged stimulus that will provide jobs from the get-go; he’s already appointed an array of scientists and eco-advocates for his cabinet posts.
3) Record Level of Cleantech Investing: It might not last in 2009, but 2008 saw a record level of venture investment in the cleantech industry. According to the Cleantech Group, venture firms invested $2.6 billion into 158 companies globally in the third quarter of 2008, a 37 percent increase from the year before and a 17 percent increase over the previous quarter. In fact, the first three quarters of 2008 brought in more cleantech investment than all of 2007.
4) Massive U.S. Solar Plants Moved Forward: With the renewable portfolio standards in states like California calling for a certain percentage of electricity to come from clean power, utilities became a lot more aggressive on doing deals with solar companies to get solar facilities built in 2008. Northern California utility PG&E signed 800 MW worth of solar purchase agreements with SunPower and OptiSolar for photovoltaic solar power plants, as well as 900 MW of solar thermal projects with BrightSource.
5) First Solar’s Panels Reached Grid Parity?: Another contributing factor to the rush of solar deals is the drop in the price of solar technology. According to one analyst — Pacific Crest’s Mark Bachman — thin-film solar darling First Solar has already reached grid parity, or the point where photovoltaic electricity is as cheap as conventional electric power. If true, that’s a major victory for the U.S. solar photovoltaic industry.
6) Mainstream Tech Went Green: Infotech companies started to see the merit of energy efficiency, and even clean power, in 2008. Google was the second most active cleantech investor in the third quarter of this year. Intel has been investing in solar, battery and energy storage companies, and has been advised to move into lithium-ion battery production. Companies like IBM, HP and Sun made significant efforts to cut down on energy consumption in their data centers and design lower power computing hardware. To learn more about the merger of greentech and infotech, check out our upcoming conference in March in San Francisco.
7) Better Place Struck Deals: While we’re not sure how electric vehicle startup Better Place will fair over the long run — the proposed networks still need to secure funding — the company struck a string of deals in 2008, offering hope to the future of electric transportation. Deals included partnerships with Israel, Denmark, the California Bay Area, Hawaii and Australia.
8) U.S. Wind Market Blew Strong: So T. Boone has delayed his wind farm plans, but the U.S. still saw a significant amount of wind turbine construction in 2008. According to the American Wind Energy Association, the U.S. has installed over 20,000 MW of wind capacity, and is now the world leader in wind electricity generation, with enough to power 5.3 million American homes.
9) The Year of Plans: It was hip to conjure up a plan to use technology to fight global warming. In 2008 we heard detailed plans from wind power builder T. Boone Pickens, former Vice-President and cleantech investor Al Gore, former Intel Chairman Andy Grove, and Google CEO Eric Schmidt. Plans deliver hope and more chance of action.
10) Electric Vehicles On the Horizon: The high price of gas this summer (which has since dropped) spurred large auto makers to declare electric vehicle plans, while startups also moved aggressively into the market. Since then there’s been some serious hangups — the auto industry’s near-death experience, Think stumbling, Tesla slowing down — but 2008 planted the seeds of an electric vehicle trend that will emerge more significantly in 2009 and 2010.
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Where Are Oil Prices Headed in 2009?
Kevin Kelleher - Energy
Oil prices have become something of a contrarian indicator for alternative energy. While the surge above $145 a barrel this summer seemed to promise a golden age of investment in cleaner power, now that prices are back near the $37-a-barrel range and credit is in short supply, things aren’t looking so sunny.
As we close the doors on the strange and tumultuous year that was 2008, analysts are looking ahead to what 2009 will bring. So far, signs are mixed. The Energy Information Administration projects crude oil will trade at an average of $51 a barrel in 2009, translating into low gasoline prices:
Along with lower projected crude oil prices, annual average retail gasoline and diesel fuel prices in 2009 are projected to be $2.03 and $2.47 per gallon, respectively…The U.S. economic recession is also contributing to lower natural gas wellhead prices. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price is projected to decline from an average of $9.17 per Mcf in 2008 to $6.25 per Mcf in 2009.
The chief energy economist of Deutsche Bank, Adam Sieminski, said recently that the demand for oil in 2009 will drop more than any other time in the last quarter of a century, due to the weak economy. Sieminski forecasts oil traded in New York falling as low as $30 and averaging $47.50 for the whole year. He says higher forecasts haven’t adequately factored in how the global downturn will hurt oil demand.
Others see the supply-demand balance starting to tip in favor of higher prices later in the year, thanks in part to OPEC’s plans to cut output. Paul Stevens, a professor at the UK’s Royal Institute of International Affairs, said:
In 2009, we will see continued prices weakness in first half or quarter of year. A lot depends on demand and that depends on the nature and depth of the economic recession…if demand does not completely collapse, my guess is that as we move through 2009, as OPEC’s determination to defend its price bears up, then prices will creep up to US$70, to US$80 that they want.
Once demand returns, oil prices could spike quickly if companies decide to lay off workers and cut back on new investments. That could rekindle interest in cleantech initiatives in the private sector, apart from what is expected from public stimulus. In the topsy-turvy world of energy investments, OPEC may be a key factor in reviving green energy next year.
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